It was John Nance Garner, Veep to FDR in 1932, who once described the U.S. vice presidency as "not worth a bucket of warm p***." (Yes, that is the original quote, later euphemized by the press.) So why all the hubbub over McCain's and Obama's picks?
In recent history, candidates have chosen veep running mates primarily to gain votes in crucial states where polls may tip the entire election one way or another.The degree to which a veep's functional strengths compliment the ticket has been a secondary consideration.
In McCain's case, the selection has added import because of his age. Political correctness aside, he is statistically much more likely to die in office than Obama would be. McCain also needs to throw Evangelicals a big bone, and picking a veep they could tolerate (i.e., anyone but Romney) would boost McCain in that constituency. On the other hand, Romney would probably be one of the most conservative choices McCain could make. If McCain decides to call the Evangelicals' bluff and try to connect to bedrock conservatives, Romney is a smart choice. He also would bring economic cred to a ticket that seems to lack it.
I think Obama's strongest move would be to turn the system on its ear by choosing Colin Powell. Powell would bring instant foreign policy and military cred with integrity. (I believe most people have forgiven Powell for letting Bush dupe him into being the point man for bagging U.N. support for the Iraq invasion.) Choosing a veep from the other party would be a resounding bow shot across the deck of partisan politics in Washington. Obama also has less of a challenge in mollifying the traditional Democratic base; after eight years of Bush, they'll turn out to vote ANYONE but a Republican into office. Joe Biden would be a gesture to old Washington, and I doubt he'll get the nod despite the current buzz. Biden has played the game for a long time, building his rolodex and resume, but has never seemed to able to sparkle. Governor Sebelius would be a moderate way to get female votes without having to deal with the political baggage Billary would bring to the ticket.
My biggest fear is that Obama will succumb to pure political pressure to select Hillary as veep. If he does that, he will lose my vote and I will have a lot of 'splainin' to do here.
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2 comments:
Care to change your statement on Joe Biden?
Personally, I think Biden is a mistake. Sure, he has tons of pull in a the Northeast, and with the Union, but in the South--let's put it this way...even Evangelicals will flock to Romney if given that choice...but then their brand of bigotry has surprized by before.
I guess I shouldn't be surprised by Obama's choice. He is an idealist, but he is also a politician and he knows all his idealism won't mean diddly unless he gets himself elected. It's classic: run on the edges during the primaries then dive toward the pragmatic middle for the election. Biden is a utility infielder; he'll contribute to a few victories but never make the Hall of Fame.
As for Romney, I wouldn't underestimate evangelicals' hatred of him. I think they WILL stay home rather that put a prominent member of what they consider to be an evil cult within a heartbeat of the Presidency.
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