A New Demographic

I am a 50-something, white, Mormon male who might vote for Barack Obama in November.

I began my political life as a Republican, and I retain social and economic values our society has labeled “conservative”. Nevertheless, I left the Republican Party rolls about eight years ago for two reasons: the Republican Party abandoned their “conservative” values to become a big, budget-busting government, and the corruption evident in partisan politics began to suck the oxygen out of the “big tent”. I have been a registered independent ever since.

I still find the “liberal” policies of the Democratic Party platform generally galling. I believe that depending on government to provide goods and services to ever-growing numbers of citizens is a slow form of societal suicide.

Maybe it’s age. Some people moderate their political thinking as they mature. My exposure to foreign cultures in nearly 50 countries has also given me a sense of appreciation for the diversity of other societies and religions.

Unfortunately, I think the true principal cause of my political introspection is a profound dismay with just how broken the status quo is.

Developments in recent years have convinced me that the “post-American” era is near, if not already here. As a nation, we have failed to learn one of the important lessons of history: the Middle East is the graveyard of empires.

President Bush says his goal is to promulgate democracy among Middle Eastern nations. I find that notion hardly credible for a couple of reasons. First, freedom is not universally treasured; many past and present societies have willingly traded it for security or other values. Second, the history of democracy in the West was a monumental journey that lasted several hundred years. Many Middle Eastern nations and their governments were artificially cobbled together only a few decades ago with minimal respect for existing cultural, ethnic and religious differences. How can we reasonably expect them to make the journey to democracy ten times faster than we did?

Our ability to intimidate other nations into compliance with our wishes has waned as they have matured. I do not intend to demean the commitment and personal courage of our servicemen and women. Nevertheless, the results we have sought from our military operations often seem ill-defined and non-quantifiable except when we count our dead and wounded.

I have great respect for John McCain’s personal courage and sacrifice as a prisoner of war. He does not have to prove his toughness to me or anyone else. I don’t care who combs his hair; I do care about how his wartime experiences may have changed him. I care about his apparent personal vindictiveness and the “with me or against me” mentality it implies. I like his immigration policy, but I think his approach to foreign policy could be anachronistic and counterproductive to our national interest in an evolving world. Why does John McCain advocate unconditional refusal to communicate with potential military enemies? Does he really think we can silently bend Iran to our will while the whole world watches us flounder in Iraq? I am willing to listen if someone can explain to me how we lose anything by being willing to talk before we shoot.

Most of Barack Obama’s stated policies run counter to all my instincts concerning self-sufficiency and small government. Then again, the currency of campaign promises is so devalued it no longer means anything to me. I am more concerned with character, with worldview, and with courage to change things for the better than I am with policy promises that are unlikely to materialize.

Intelligence also counts for a lot with me. With over 300 million people to choose from, we deserve to have a president who is intelligent, articulate, and persuasive in his communications. A true statesman not only has a healthy vision for the nation—he is able to persuade the nation to follow him toward that vision. George Bush could not do that because he cannot speak persuasively. (Bill Clinton never could do that because his personal moral failings damaged his credibility; it IS about character, stupid).

Can John McCain persuade us to follow him toward his vision? I’m listening—let’s see what he says, and how effectively he says it, between now and November.

Can Barack Obama do likewise? If he steers his policy wagon more toward the middle of the road and surrounds himself with smart, honest, and competent people, I think he has the best chance of any presidential candidate in my lifetime to become a true statesman.

The one thing Obama could do to lose my vote instantly is select Hillary Clinton as a running mate. Our hoary, creaky, corrupt political establishment needs dramatic renovation and rejuvenation, not obeisance.

I watched five years ago, with great hope, as Arnold Schwarzenegger rode into Sacramento promising to “blow up” the entrenched California political system. Unfortunately, he succumbed to the “dark side” and became the kind of politician he had once hated. I sense in Barack Obama a strength of character that, I hope, will enable him to resist the dark side of politics as usual and create a legacy of true political reform and statesmanship. That is an awful lot to ask of one man, but history has shown us that momentous events can and do turn on the words and deeds of extraordinary individuals.

I have seen the Terminator fail; I am now rooting for a young Jedi named Barack.